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Wells Fargo now says it pegs the odds of a recession at 40% in 2024. The Blue Chip Economic survey released last week echoed the bonhomie. More than two-thirds, 69%, of small business and 67% of midsize business leaders expressed optimism about their company’s performance. This week, members of Congress will learn the details and begin signaling whether the plan has the support of both houses. Meanwhile, in Davos, Switzerland, where many of the world’s leaders, business executives and others have gathered for the World Economic Forum’s 54th meeting, Chinese Premier Li Qiang delivered a bullish speech on China’s economic prospects.

Persons: –, Wells, “, ”, Wells Fargo, Sam Bullard, ” Bullard, JPMorgan Chase, Li Qiang Organizations: Federal Reserve, BCA Research, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s, University of Michigan, Wells, Investment Banking, JPMorgan, Capitol Locations: U.S, Davos, Switzerland

The week starts off with a bevy of unpleasant surprises for the markets and the economy but with maybe a hope of good news on the inflation front. “The decline in oil prices will feature prominently in explaining October's CPI and PPI reports. Core CPI likely slowed in October as well, with lower prices of new and used cars, lower airfares, and lower shelter costs all leaning the same way. PPI inflation likely moderated in October, too, with diesel prices following crude oil prices lower, albeit not by as much as gasoline. Powell’s comments were not anything new, but the timing seemed to suggest he was dampening down enthusiasm in the markets.

Persons: Moody’s, Mike Johnson, ”, Bob Doll, Republican Sen, Tim Scott of, David Cameron, Rishi Sunak, Stocks, Bill Adams, Waran Bhahirethan, ” Adams, Jerome Powell spooked, ” Powell, Oliver Rust, Sam Bullard, ” Bullard Organizations: U.S, AAA, Louisiana Republican, GOP, Senate, Crossmark Global Investments, Republican, Tim Scott of South Carolina, Conservative, Analysts, Comerica Bank, PPI, CPI, Federal Reserve, International Monetary Fund, Central Bank, “, Wells Locations: U.S, Louisiana, Tim Scott of South, London, Iraq, Syria, Gaza City, September’s, Israel, Washington

Do policymakers look back to last week’s report that the nation’s economy grew at a 4.9% rate in September, beating expectations? Or this week’s report on job growth for October due out on Friday after the Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday? On Wednesday, the jobs data onslaught begins with private payroll firm ADP reporting its monthly employment survey for October. Political Cartoons on the Economy View All 602 ImagesWednesday also has the Fed announcing its decision on interest rates. These include adjustments to the Fed’s new regime of higher interest rates for a longer period and the government’s fiscal situation that requires a greater level of debt issuance.

Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Sam Bullard, Wells, ” Bullard, ” Chris Diaz, ”, Louisiana Republican Mike Johnson, Johnson Organizations: Conference Board, Fed, Treasury, Federal, Brown Advisory, Labor Department, McDonalds, Apple, Dow Industrial, Louisiana Republican Locations: Louisiana

That was close, but in the end Congress found a way to avert a government shutdown. “That said, we still look for the gradual deceleration in labor market conditions to continue in the coming months,” Bullard added. Collectively, the three reports will show whether the labor market is slowing – and by just how much. The week will also reveal whether the markets have settled down following the aversion of a government shutdown and concern over rising interest rates in the wake of the Fed’s pause. “The continuation of the disinflation process suggests that the Fed may not need to hike interest rates again this cycle.”

Persons: ” Sam Bullard, “, ” Bullard, Jerome Powell – Organizations: Federal Reserve, Wells, Labor Department, Stock, BCA Research Locations: August’s, payrolls, Washington

CNN —Florida authorities have identified the woman found dead after an alligator was seen with a body in its mouth. The Pinellas County Sheriff’s Office on Saturday identified the victim as Sabrina Peckham, 41. A witness, JaMarcus Bullard, told CNN affiliate Spectrum News 13 he earlier saw an alligator with a body its mouth. Officials humanely killed In the the 13-foot, 8.5-inch male, according to the sheriff’s office and Florida Wildlife Conservation Commission. Alligators have been spotted in the area before, but resident Jennifer Dean told Spectrum News 13 that she had never seen one this large.

Persons: Sabrina Peckham, JaMarcus Bullard, ” Bullard, Jennifer Dean, ” Dean Organizations: CNN, Pinellas County Sheriff’s, Florida Wildlife Conservation Locations: Florida, Largo, Tampa, Pinellas County

Usually when a meeting of the Federal Reserve is on the week’s calendar, economists and market strategists focus on the decision to come. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has all but said policymakers would be on hold for this meeting as they digest recent economic data and consider the effects that 11 interest rate hikes have had on the economy. But the Fed will issue a new set of economic forecasts and projections about where interest rates will be over the remaining months of 2023 and in 2024, along with the unemployment rate. However, the LEI has been flashing a recession signal now for many months. “While the LEI continues to signal recession, incoming data show a resilient economy,” said Sam Bullard, managing director and senior economist at Wells Fargo’s corporate and investment unit.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, ” Steve Wyett, Wyett, LEI, ”, Sam Bullard, ” Bullard Organizations: Federal, BOK Financial, Wells, Congress Locations: U.S

For months now, inflation has been steadily trending down to a 3% level after hitting 9% last summer. That will likely bring the annual rate to 3.6%. The Fed actually pays attention to a less well-known inflation metric and tends to focus on core inflation minus housing and those numbers are improving. We look for the monthly pace of core inflation to rebound to 0.2%-0.3% in Q4 and keep the annual rate closer to 4% than 3% through year end. The annual rate of headline CPI is also likely to remain stuck just above 3% through the end of 2023.

Persons: ”, Sam Bullard, Wells, ” Bullard, Janet Yellen Organizations: CPI, White, Fed, PPI Locations: India, U.S

☆ James Bullard, president of St. Louis Fed, to step down
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard announced Thursday he is stepping down from his position in mid-August. “It has been both a privilege and an honor to be part of the St. Louis Fed for the last 33 years, including serving as its president for the last 15 years,” Bullard said in a statement released Thursday afternoon. With the exception of the president of New York Fed, four regional bank presidents from the remaining 11 branches serve one-year terms on the Federal Open Market Committee on a rotating basis. Kathleen O’Neill Paese, the St. Louis Fed’s first vice president and chief operating officer, was confirmed Thursday by the bank’s board and assumed Bullard’s duties “immediately” in the interim, according to the statement. The St. Louis Fed said it is hiring “a national executive search firm” to help identify Bullard’s permanent successor.

Persons: James Bullard, Louis Fed, ” Bullard, Bullard, Purdue University’s Mitchell E, Daniels, Jr, Jerome Powell, won’t, Kathleen O’Neill Paese, Louis Fed’s, “, Bullard’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Louis Federal Reserve, Purdue, School of Business, Fed, New York Fed, Federal, Seven, Governor Locations: New York, St

☆ RuPaul opens the doors to his maximalist Beverly Hills mansion
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Jacqui Palumbo | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

In a four-poster canopy bed — or velvet claw-foot daybed — in the Beverly Hills mansion he shares with husband Georges LeBar. The property is more than worthy of royalty, with grand airy rooms and neoclassical details dressed up in bold colors and maximalist glamour. RuPaul and LeBar bought the European-style estate in 2019, and enlisted interior designer Martyn Lawrence Bullard — a longtime friend — and architect Christopher Hatch McLean to work their magic. RuPaul and Georges LeBar transformed their Beverly Hills estate with the help of interior designer Martyn Lawrence Bullard. Orange is the drag icon's favorite color and appears in velvet, lacquer or painted accents through the home.

☆ With over 100 anti-LGBTQ bills before state legislatures in 2023 so far, activists say they're 'fired up'
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-14 | by ( Jo Yurcaba | Jo Yurcaba Is A Reporter For Nbc Out. | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +10 min

So far, Texas has taken the lead with 36 such bills, according to Equality Texas, a statewide LGBTQ advocacy group. Four states — Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee and Arizona — have enacted restrictions on gender-affirming medical care for minors, though federal judges have blocked them from taking effect in Arkansas and Alabama. State Sen. David Bullard, the Republican sponsoring the bill, told The Oklahoman that gender-affirming medical care is a “permanent change in your body that cannot be reversed. Accredited medical associations — including the American Medical Association, the American Academy of Pediatrics and the American Psychological Association — have supported gender-affirming care for minors. Advocates and doctors who treat trans youth have said many of the health care restrictions proposed by state legislators mischaracterize what gender-affirming care is.

☆ Fed's Bullard says 2023 may be year inflation surge wilts
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Jan 5 (Reuters) - St. Louis Federal Reserve leader James Bullard said Thursday the new year could finally bring some welcome relief on the inflation front. “During 2023, actual inflation will likely follow inflation expectations to a lower level as the real economy normalizes,” he said. That saw the central bank take its overnight short-term rate target from near zero levels in March to the current 4.25% to 4.50% range. Officials have said wherever they stop with rates they are likely to stay for a while as they ensure inflation pressures are easing. Bullard also said the job market remains “strong.”Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Bullard said that despite aggressive actions by the Fed this year the current target policy rate of between 3.75% and 4% remains below the "sufficiently restrictive" level the Fed feels is needed to lower inflation to its 2% target. In a graphic presented for discussion at an economic event in Louisville, Bullard showed that using even "dovish" assumptions, a basic monetary policy rule would require rates to rise to at least around 5%, while stricter assumptions would recommend rates above 7%. That entire range could fall if inflation declines more rapidly than expected, Bullard said, noting that "market expectations are for declining inflation in 2023." However "caution is warranted," he said, since the investors and Fed officials "have been predicting declining inflation just around the corner for the past 18 months." "While the policy rate has increased substantially this year, it has not yet reached a level that could be justified as sufficiently restrictive, according to this analysis, even with the generous assumptions,” Bullard said.

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